1 00:00:01,234 --> 00:00:04,637 DANA BASH: We are unveiling a new CNN poll from Pennsylvania, 2 00:00:04,671 --> 00:00:06,673 Wisconsin, and Michigan. 3 00:00:06,706 --> 00:00:08,041 David Chalian is where else? 4 00:00:08,074 --> 00:00:09,542 At the magic wall, to break it all down. 5 00:00:09,576 --> 00:00:10,577 David. 6 00:00:10,610 --> 00:00:12,045 DAVID CHALIAN: Three polls for you today, Dana. 7 00:00:12,078 --> 00:00:15,315 Yes, these are our final set of battleground state polls, 8 00:00:15,348 --> 00:00:18,151 and today, we're focusing on those blue wall states. 9 00:00:18,184 --> 00:00:20,720 Take a look at the overall numbers among likely voters 10 00:00:20,754 --> 00:00:21,988 in Pennsylvania. 11 00:00:22,022 --> 00:00:27,927 Dead heat tie, 48% to 48% in the biggest electoral college vote 12 00:00:27,961 --> 00:00:29,863 prize of the battleground map. 13 00:00:29,896 --> 00:00:34,401 In Michigan, slight edge for Kamala Harris, 48% to 43%. 14 00:00:34,434 --> 00:00:38,438 In Wisconsin, we also see a slight edge for Harris, 51% 15 00:00:38,471 --> 00:00:39,873 to 45%. 16 00:00:39,906 --> 00:00:41,641 I will note, in these two states, 17 00:00:41,674 --> 00:00:43,810 the Supreme Court ruled that it's going to stay this way. 18 00:00:43,843 --> 00:00:46,312 Robert Kennedy Jr. remains on the ballot, 19 00:00:46,346 --> 00:00:49,382 and his presence there may be putting some downward pressure 20 00:00:49,416 --> 00:00:51,317 on Trump's numbers there. 21 00:00:51,351 --> 00:00:54,154 Let's look at the gender gap across all three states. 22 00:00:54,187 --> 00:00:57,257 You see here, I'll start down here in Wisconsin. 23 00:00:57,290 --> 00:00:59,025 Trump is up 12 with men. 24 00:00:59,059 --> 00:01:02,962 Harris up 21 points with women in our poll. 25 00:01:02,996 --> 00:01:04,631 That's certainly helping her there. 26 00:01:04,664 --> 00:01:06,499 The gender gap is helping her in Michigan. 27 00:01:06,533 --> 00:01:09,202 Men are tied between the two candidates in Michigan 28 00:01:09,235 --> 00:01:12,305 in our poll, whereas, Harris has an 8-point advantage 29 00:01:12,338 --> 00:01:14,174 with female voters in Michigan. 30 00:01:14,207 --> 00:01:15,642 But then take a look here. 31 00:01:15,675 --> 00:01:18,078 There isn't really much of a wide gender gap. 32 00:01:18,111 --> 00:01:20,413 Trump's got a 4-point edge with men in Pennsylvania. 33 00:01:20,447 --> 00:01:22,582 Harris has a 3-point edge with women. 34 00:01:22,615 --> 00:01:26,119 That certainly helps explain why the race is tied there. 35 00:01:26,152 --> 00:01:28,655 African-American voters, now, I just want to say, here, 36 00:01:28,688 --> 00:01:31,191 we're comparing likely voters in a poll, 37 00:01:31,224 --> 00:01:34,694 which is different than actual voters that show up in the 2020 38 00:01:34,727 --> 00:01:37,464 exit poll about how the electorate sort of shaped itself 39 00:01:37,497 --> 00:01:39,466 and how they voted in Pennsylvania, 40 00:01:39,499 --> 00:01:42,936 but as a comparative point, in our poll among likely voters 41 00:01:42,969 --> 00:01:45,071 in Michigan, Harris has a 71-point 42 00:01:45,105 --> 00:01:49,008 advantage among African-American voters over Donald Trump. 43 00:01:49,042 --> 00:01:50,877 Joe Biden in Michigan four years ago, 44 00:01:50,910 --> 00:01:53,313 according to the exit polls, won the African-American vote 45 00:01:53,346 --> 00:01:56,282 in Michigan by 85 percentage points. 46 00:01:56,316 --> 00:01:57,717 So, a little bit underperformance there 47 00:01:57,750 --> 00:01:59,018 in this poll. 48 00:01:59,052 --> 00:02:01,688 But much more dramatically in Pennsylvania. 49 00:02:01,721 --> 00:02:03,156 Harris' lead with African-Americans 50 00:02:03,189 --> 00:02:04,691 among likely African-American voters 51 00:02:04,724 --> 00:02:08,361 in Pennsylvania in our poll, is 55 percentage points over Trump. 52 00:02:08,394 --> 00:02:10,597 Biden in 2020, in the exit polls, 53 00:02:10,630 --> 00:02:12,465 won African-American voters in Pennsylvania 54 00:02:12,499 --> 00:02:15,401 by 85 percentage points. 55 00:02:15,435 --> 00:02:17,570 That is a potential warning sign in places 56 00:02:17,604 --> 00:02:20,306 like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, for the Harris 57 00:02:20,340 --> 00:02:22,175 campaign to take a look at. 58 00:02:22,208 --> 00:02:24,844 And then interestingly, this is Donald Trump's base, Dana, 59 00:02:24,878 --> 00:02:25,678 as you know. 60 00:02:25,712 --> 00:02:28,448 White, non-college-educated voters. 61 00:02:28,481 --> 00:02:30,416 And it is still his base. 62 00:02:30,450 --> 00:02:33,786 But he's not performing as strong as he did four years ago. 63 00:02:33,820 --> 00:02:35,688 If you compare now, in Pennsylvania, 64 00:02:35,722 --> 00:02:37,457 he has a 27-point advantage with white 65 00:02:37,490 --> 00:02:40,026 non-college voters in our poll among likely voters. 66 00:02:40,059 --> 00:02:42,095 But back in the exit polls four years ago, 67 00:02:42,128 --> 00:02:44,764 he actually won them in Pennsylvania by 32 points. 68 00:02:44,797 --> 00:02:45,798 You see it in Michigan. 69 00:02:45,832 --> 00:02:46,766 17. 70 00:02:46,799 --> 00:02:48,535 Back then, it was 21 points. 71 00:02:48,568 --> 00:02:51,638 In Wisconsin in the poll, he has an 11-point edge among white 72 00:02:51,671 --> 00:02:53,473 non-college likely voters. 73 00:02:53,506 --> 00:02:56,209 But in the 2020 exit polls, he won 74 00:02:56,242 --> 00:02:57,944 them by 16 percentage points. 75 00:02:57,977 --> 00:03:00,580 So a little bit underperforming with his own base, Dana.