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DANA BASH: We are unveiling a
new CNN poll from Pennsylvania,

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Wisconsin, and Michigan.

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David Chalian is where else?

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At the magic wall,
to break it all down.

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David.

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DAVID CHALIAN: Three
polls for you today, Dana.

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Yes, these are our final set
of battleground state polls,

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and today, we're focusing
on those blue wall states.

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Take a look at the overall
numbers among likely voters

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in Pennsylvania.

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Dead heat tie, 48% to 48% in the
biggest electoral college vote

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prize of the battleground map.

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In Michigan, slight edge for
Kamala Harris, 48% to 43%.

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In Wisconsin, we also see a
slight edge for Harris, 51%

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to 45%.

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I will note, in
these two states,

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the Supreme Court ruled that
it's going to stay this way.

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Robert Kennedy Jr.
remains on the ballot,

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and his presence there may be
putting some downward pressure

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on Trump's numbers there.

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Let's look at the gender
gap across all three states.

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You see here, I'll start
down here in Wisconsin.

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Trump is up 12 with men.

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Harris up 21 points
with women in our poll.

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That's certainly
helping her there.

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The gender gap is
helping her in Michigan.

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Men are tied between the
two candidates in Michigan

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in our poll, whereas, Harris
has an 8-point advantage

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with female voters in Michigan.

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But then take a look here.

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There isn't really much
of a wide gender gap.

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Trump's got a 4-point edge
with men in Pennsylvania.

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Harris has a 3-point
edge with women.

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That certainly helps explain
why the race is tied there.

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African-American voters, now,
I just want to say, here,

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we're comparing likely
voters in a poll,

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which is different than actual
voters that show up in the 2020

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exit poll about how the
electorate sort of shaped itself

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and how they voted
in Pennsylvania,

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but as a comparative point, in
our poll among likely voters

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in Michigan, Harris
has a 71-point

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advantage among African-American
voters over Donald Trump.

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Joe Biden in Michigan
four years ago,

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according to the exit polls,
won the African-American vote

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in Michigan by 85
percentage points.

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So, a little bit
underperformance there

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in this poll.

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But much more dramatically
in Pennsylvania.

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Harris' lead with
African-Americans

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among likely
African-American voters

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in Pennsylvania in our poll, is
55 percentage points over Trump.

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Biden in 2020, in
the exit polls,

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won African-American
voters in Pennsylvania

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by 85 percentage points.

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That is a potential
warning sign in places

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like Philadelphia,
Pittsburgh, for the Harris

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campaign to take a look at.

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And then interestingly, this
is Donald Trump's base, Dana,

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as you know.

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White, non-college-educated
voters.

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And it is still his base.

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But he's not performing as
strong as he did four years ago.

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If you compare now,
in Pennsylvania,

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he has a 27-point
advantage with white

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non-college voters in our
poll among likely voters.

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But back in the exit
polls four years ago,

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he actually won them in
Pennsylvania by 32 points.

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You see it in Michigan.

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17.

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Back then, it was 21 points.

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In Wisconsin in the poll, he
has an 11-point edge among white

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non-college likely voters.

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But in the 2020
exit polls, he won

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them by 16 percentage points.

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So a little bit underperforming
with his own base, Dana.